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New Product Evaluations / Assessments
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Key components of our new product evaluations include:
1 Peak
Sales Potential
Years after launch,
US$, TRX, Market Share %, Units, DTC at peak year
2 10 Year Sales & Profit Forecasts including NPV, DCF, IRR
Sales, Gross Margin, Royalties, Selling Expense, Medical Expense
(Phase IIIb/IV), Health Economics
3 Identification of value drivers and sensitivity analysis (including STAR
technique)
Sales, Price, COGs, Selling Expense, Royalties
4 Development of the Comparative Performance Profile (CPP) (based on
real and expected labelings)
Comparative parameters for efficacy, safety, cost, compliance, health
outcome data
5 Determining the "must have" attributes for commercial success
Based on the comparative performance profile (CPP) we identify "must
have" and "must not have" attributes
6 Determining the "relative competitiveness" of a product
Relative commercial attractiveness based on product profile, CPP,
Cost, launch investment and
anticipated competitive reaction
7 Identification of "analogue" products & markets
Market size, Market evolutions, Target audience, competitive
intensity, generics, launch sequence
8 Development of decision trees to develop road maps for development plans,
technical probability of success for each phase of development until
launch
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Identification of the "point of no return"
Cumulative probabilities of success and risk adjusted NPV and
sensitivities
10 Risk Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulations
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| New Product Commercial
Evaluation Guidelines, Executive Summary
Executive Summary
- New Product Description
- Disease summary
- Treatable patients groups
- Product description (Form /
strength, dosage, delivery system
- Indication and limitations for use
- Medical Rationale
- Commercial Rationale
- Comparative performance profile (CPP)
- New Product
Status and Requirements
- IP position
- Pharmaceutical development
- Clinical development
- Regulatory status
- Expected labeling
- Market
Definition
- Market segments (RX,
OTC, hospital, Medicare, Medicaid)
- Therapeutic Classes (IDC,
ATC, NDC)
- Competitive product &
classes
- Business Case, Project Rationale
- Key Assumptions
- Market and competition,
market segmentation
- Market dynamics,
competitive intensity
- Managed care
- Payor strategy
- Pricing and
reimbursement
- COGs
- Marketing & Medical
Investments
- Resource
Requirement for successful Launch
- Cost of acquisition,
cost of development
- Royalties, milestone
payments
- Pre-launch activities
and expenses
- Sales force cost, A&P,
Medical Phase IIIb / IV, Health Economics
- Project
Objectives
- Launch date
- Estimated peak sales
potential at maturity
- Overall project value
(NPV, IRR, NPAV)
- Risk and
Opportunities
- Critical
Success Factors, Potential Roadblocks / Contingency Plans
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