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New Product Evaluations / Assessments / Valuations

 

Key components of our new product evaluations include:

1 Peak
Sales Potential
  
Years after launch, US$, TRX, Market Share %, Units, DTC at peak year

2 10 Year Sales & Profit Forecasts including NPV, DCF, IRR
   Sales, Gross Margin, Royalties, Selling Expense, Medical Expense (Phase IIIb/IV), Health Economics

3 Identification of value drivers and sensitivity analysis (including STAR technique)
   Sales, Price, COGs, Selling Expense, Royalties

4 Development of the Comparative Performance Profile (CPP) (based on real and expected labelings)
  Comparative parameters for efficacy, safety, cost, compliance, health outcome data

5 Determining the "must have" attributes for commercial success
   Based on the comparative performance profile (CPP) we identify "must have" and "must not have" attributes

6 Determining the "relative competitiveness" of a product
   Relative commercial attractiveness based on product profile, CPP, Cost, launch investment and
   anticipated competitive reaction

7 Identification of "analogue" products & markets
   Market size, Market evolutions, Target audience, competitive intensity, generics, launch sequence

8 Development of decision trees to develop road maps for development plans,
  technical probability of success for each phase of development until launch

9 Identification of the "point of no return"
  Cumulative probabilities of success and risk adjusted NPV and sensitivities

10 Risk Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulations
 

 



 


 

New Product Commercial Evaluation Guidelines, Executive Summary

Executive Summary

     - New Product Description
        - Disease summary
        - Treatable patients groups
        - Product description (Form / strength, dosage, delivery system
        - Indication and limitations for use
        - Medical Rationale
        - Commercial Rationale
        - Comparative performance profile (CPP)

     - New Product Status and Requirements
         - IP position
         - Pharmaceutical development
         - Clinical development
         - Regulatory status
         - Expected labeling

     - Market Definition
          - Market segments (RX, OTC, hospital, Medicare, Medicaid)
          - Therapeutic Classes (IDC, ATC, NDC)
          - Competitive product & classes

     - Business Case, Project Rationale

     - Key Assumptions
          - Market and competition, market segmentation
          - Market dynamics, competitive intensity
          - Managed care
          - Payor strategy
          - Pricing and reimbursement
          - COGs
          - Marketing & Medical Investments

     - Resource Requirement for successful Launch
          - Cost of acquisition, cost of development
          - Royalties, milestone payments
          - Pre-launch activities and expenses
          - Sales force cost, A&P, Medical Phase IIIb / IV, Health Economics

     - Project Objectives
          - Launch date
          - Estimated peak sales potential at maturity
          - Overall project value (NPV, IRR, NPAV)

     - Risk and Opportunities

     - Critical Success Factors, Potential Roadblocks / Contingency Plans   
    

 


 


 


 

   
   

 

 

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Last modified: 07/29/2010