This Seminar is our "CLASSIC". We go far beyond traditional forecasting techniques used by most Pharmaceutical Companies.

Seminar outline

1 Introduction
   Forecasting Art or Science

2 Basic Forecasting Tools
   Measuring Forecasting Accuracy

3 Time Series Methods
   Time Series Decomposition

4 Moving Averages (Regular / Exponential)
   Exponential Smoothing
   Regression (linear & non linear)

5 The Forecasting Toolbox

6 Sales Forecasting and the Value
   of New Products

7 New product Modeling
  The 7 basic Model Types

8 The 10 Cardinal Sins in
   New product Forecasting

9 From Sales Forecast to P&L
   to Net Present Value (NPV)

10 How to analyze the NPV and
    other financial parameters
    including the STAR approach

Key Learning Objectives for this 2 day Program are:

▪ Brief re-cap of basic forecasting techniques

▪ How to review forecasts and test for credibility

▪ How to build "robust" new product
  forecast models

▪ How to generate and "pressure test"
   forecasting assumptions

▪ Understanding all variables of a
  new product forecast model,
  how they interrelate and ultimately
  translate into value ($) for a company

▪ Understanding when and when not
   to use epidemiological models

▪ Understanding of the 7 basic models
  in New Product Forecasting

▪ How to index variables to transform
  life cycles from analogue products

▪ How to avoid the 10 "Cardinal Sins"
  in new product forecasting

▪ How to create a product P&L
  and how to calculate the NPV

▪ How to analyze the NPV