New Product Forecasting
is an attempt to predict future events with regard to resource investments and expected returns.

Dr. Peter Mueller

Key Learning Objectives for this 2 day Program are:

1. Brief re-cap of basic forecasting techniques

2. How to build "robust" new product forecast models

3. How to generate and "pressure test" forecasting assumptions

4. Understanding all variables of a new product forecast model,
   how they interrelate and ultimately translate into value ($) for a company

5. Understanding when and when not to use epidemiological models

6. Understanding of the 7 basic models in New Product Forecasting

7. How to avoid the 10 "Cardinal Sins" in new product forecasting

8. How to create a product P&L and how to calculate the NPV

9. How to analyze the NPV

10. How to perform a powerful sensitivity analysis
    

We start with a re-cap of basic forecasting techniques (20 % of the seminar)

1. Time series methods and decomposition

2. Moving Average

3. Exponential smoothing

4. Regression

5. Correlation techniques 

The NEW PRODUCT Forecasting & Modeling
section of the seminar 
takes 80 % of the 2 day program.

During the New Product Forecasting and Modeling section of the program, 
the participants will first learn key concepts in the new product 
modeling process and then apply these concepts in Case Studies!

Learning by doing!

Strength and Weaknesses of popular “New Product Models”

1. The Epidemiological Approach
    (Incidence and Prevalence based models for “acute” diseases)

2. The Dynamic Patient Flow Approach (HIV, Cancer etc.)
    Practical application of “Annual Patient cohorts” and survival rates

3. The Therapy Class / Chemical Class Approach

4. The Composite Market Model  

Marketing / Business concepts in the context 
of New Product Forecasting Models:

1.  Data Set / Information required for a robust forecasting model

2.  Phase of development and the impact on the probability of success 
     to achieve “Target Product Profile” (TPP)  

Case Studies:

We have case studies for new product forecasts from all major therapeutic areas

Cardiovascular
Respiratory
Antiinfectives / Antivirals
Metabolism
CNS
Oncology
Respiratory

Who should attend?

The seminar has been designed for: Forecasting Analysts / Managers, 
Marketing Managers, Product Managers, Marketing Research Analysts, 
Managers, Directors, New Product Managers, Financial Managers, 
Supply Chain Managers, Business Development Managers, Consultants.

In essence, everybody in the Pharmaceutical Industry, who 
requires a very good understanding of new product forecasting principles
and practices will benefit from this hands on seminar.

Registration 

To register:

please fill out the Registration Form below
or 
phone us at (908)238-9276
or 
e-mail to: mueller@epi3000.com

Registration Form:

New Product Forecasting & Valuation Seminar
in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Holiday INN SELECT
Clinton New Jersey

Name:         ________________________

Title:            ________________________

Company:  ________________________

Phone:        ________________________

Fax:             ________________________

e-mail:        ________________________ 


Fees: The seminar fee is 2300 US $ per participant.

The seminar fees include all course materials and refreshment breaks 
and two luncheons. It does not include accommodation or transportation!

For your Hotel reservations, please contact the Holiday INN
Monday-Friday, 8:30am- 6:00pm

 THE HOLIDAY INN SELECT OF CLINTON, NEW JERSEY
111 ROUTE 173, CLINTON, NJ 08809
PHONE (908) 735-5111. FAX: (908) 730-9768

Directions

If the Holiday INN SELECT does not have any rooms available,
please try the HAMPTON INN, 
which is right next to EXIT 15 of Interstate 78

(Same directions as for the Holiday INN SELECT)

DIRECTIONS TO THE HOLIDAY INN SELECT OF CLINTON
FROM VARIOUS HIGHWAYS

Interstate 78 Westbound

To Exit 15, at top of exit is a traffic light, go straight through, 
The Holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.

Interstate 78 Eastbound

To Exit 15, bear right off exit to traffic light, turn left, 
The Holiday Inn Select of Clinton 1/4 mile on the left.

Holland Tunnel, Lincoln Tunnel or George Washington Bridge

Take New Jersey Turnpike to Exit 14, bear left at toll booths 
onto Interstate 78 Express lanes. Take I-78W for approximately 45 miles to exit 15,
at top of exit is a traffic light , go straight through, 
The Holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.

Garden State Parkway (coming from the north)

Get off at Exit 142 . Take Interstate 78W for approximately 42 miles, 
to Exit 15 to traffic light, straight through, 
The Holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.

Garden State Parkway (coming from the south)

Get off at Exit 127.Take Interstate 287N to Interstate 78W. 
Take I-78W for approximately 25 miles to Exit 15 to traffic light, 
straight through, the Holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.

Morristown Area

Interstate 287S to Interstate 78W for approximately 25 miles , 
to Exit 15, to traffic light, straight through, 
The holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.

Long Island, Brooklyn & Staten Island

Verranzano Bridge, after toll go straight to Outerbridge Crossing 
exit ( West Shore Expressway). Take West Shore Express 
to exit for Outerbridge Crossing, over bridge, go straight,
you will be on 440S, which changes into Interstate 287N, 
to Interstate 78W (Clinton). 
Stay on I-78W for approximately 25 miles to Exit 15, to traffic light, 
straight through, The Holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.

Newark Airport

Take Interstate 78W to Exit 15, at top of exit is a traffic light, 
go straight through, 
The Holiday Inn Select of Clinton is 1/4 mile on the left.